Commentary CBA

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09.03.2016

Moderate slowdown

Consumer prices rose by 0.1%, month-on-month, and by 0.5%, year-on-year. This was in line with market expectations.

Month on month growth was driven by prices of holidays which rose by 5%. Food, tobacco and alcoholic beverages were by 0.3% more expensive than in January. On the other hand fuel prices fell by another 3.9%, m/m. 

Ke stažení:
12.01.2016

Under the spell of cheap oil and food

Consumer prices dropped by 0.1%, month-on-month, and increased by mere 0.1%, year-on-year. The gap between real inflation and the inflation forecast of the central bank (0.8%, y/y) thus further widened. Moreover, the Eurostat estimate of December HICP was at -0.1%, y/y. As for the internationally comparable standards, Czech economy thus fell into deflation at the end of 2015.

In 2015, the average annual inflation was at 0.3%. This was the second lowest figure in history, just slightly higher than record low average CPI reported in 2003 (0.1%, y/y).

Ke stažení:
09.12.2015

Inflation fell close to zero

Consumer prices dropped by 0.4%, month-on-month, and increased by mere 0.1%, year-on-year. The gap between real inflation and the inflation forecast of the central bank (0.6%, y/y) thus widened to half of percentage point.

Fuel prices were the main factor pressing inflation down – fuel was by 2.4% cheaper than in October. Food prices went down by 0.8%, m/m. Prices of many dairy products fell because of the abolition of European milk quotas.

Ke stažení:
09.11.2015

Fuel prices press the inflation further down

​2015 consumer prices stagnated, month-on-month, and increased by 0.2%, year-on-year. The gap between real inflation and the inflation forecast of the central bank (0.4%, y/y) has remained at 0.2 percentage point.

Ke stažení:
12.10.2015

Inflation is a little bit far from zero

In September 2015 consumer prices dropped by 0.2%, month-on-month, and increased by 0.4%, year-on-year. The result corresponded with higher range of market estimates. The gap between real inflation and the inflation forecast of the central bank (0.6%, y/y) has slightly narrowed to 0.2 percentage points.

Ke stažení:
09.09.2015

Inflation continues to be very low

In August 2015 consumer prices dropped by 0.2 %, month-on-month, and increased by 0.3 %, year-on-year. The result corresponded with the lower bound of the market estimates. The gap between real inflation and the inflation forecast of the central bank (0.7 %, y/y) has thus further widened. 

Ke stažení:
10.08.2015

Inflation below consensus and CNB forecast

In July 2015 consumer prices dropped by 0.1 % month-on-month and by 0.5 %, year-on-year. The result stood slightly below both market consensus and the fresh inflation forecast of the central bank (0.7 %, y/y). For more information see the PDF.

Ke stažení:
09.07.2015

Slow but ongoing growth of CPI

In June 2015 consumer prices increased by 0.1% month-on-month and by 0.8%, year-on-year. This stood slightly below market consensus but notably above the inflation forecast of the central bank (0.4%, y/y). For more information see the PDF.

Ke stažení:
09.06.2015

Inflation above all expectations

In May 2015 consumer prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month and by 0.7%, year-on-year. Fresh data surpassed not only the inflation forecast of the central bank (0.4%, y/y) but also the top range of market expectations (0.6%, y/y). The HICP estimate corresponds with the CPI. For more information see the PDF.

Ke stažení:
29.05.2015

Refined data drew even better picture than preliminary estimate

Refined data on GDP Q1 2015 (3.1%, q/q and 4.2%, y/y) confirmed the basic picture outlined by the preliminary estimate (2.8%, q/q and 3.9%, y/y). The data on structure of GDP confirmed the leading role of domestic demand. The annual increase in consumption of households and investment demand was balanced at 3.0%, and 3.2%, respectively. In Q1 2015, inventories grew rapidly which corresponded to rapid growth of new orders both domestic and from abroad. For more information see the PDF.

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